Microsimulation

Microsimulation

Research reports

  • Gasior, K., Wright, G., McLennan, D., Noble, M., Jara, H. X., Malerba, D., Dankmeyer, M.C. and Beierl, S. (2024) The Role of Social Protection for a Just Transition in Developing and Emerging Economies. GIZ Germany and SASPRI, on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. Click here to download a copy.
  • Van den Heever, A., Chitiga-Mabugu, M., van Heerden, J. and Noble, M. (2022) Expert Panel on Basic Income Support Supplementary Modelling Report: Report into the appropriateness and feasibility of a system of Basic Income Support for South Africa, Pretoria: Department of Social Development. Click here to download a copy.
  • Van den Heever, A., Chitiga-Mabugu, M., Devereux, S., Leibbrandt, M., Sachs, M., van Heerden, J. and Wright, G. (2021) Expert Panel on Basic Income Support Final Report: Report into the appropriateness and feasibility of a system of Basic Income Support for South Africa, Pretoria: Department of Social Development. Click here to download a copy.
  • Wright, G., Noble, M. and Barnes, H. (2021) Microsimulation analysis by SASPRI for the project on the Rapid Assessment on the Implementation and Utilisation of the Special R350 Covid-19 Social Relief of Distress (COVID-SRD) Grant: Modelling options for the continuation of a COVID-SRD Grant (05/06/21). Report for the Department of Social Development, RSA.

Journal articles

  • Gasior, K., Wright, G., Barnes, H. and Noble, M. (2024) ‘Adaptive Social Protection in Indonesia – Stress-testing the effect of a natural disaster on poverty and vulnerability’. Social Policy and Administration, 58(3), 505-520. Open access.
  • Gasior, K., Leventi, C., Noble, M., Wright, G. and Barnes, H. (2022) ‘The distributional impact of tax and benefit systems in five African countries’. International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 42(1/2), 92–105.
  • Wright, G., Noble, M., Barnes, H., Moechtar, A., McLennan, D., Yusuf, A. A., Gasior, K. and Muyanto, R. (2021) ‘Estimating the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the remedial tax and benefit policies on poverty in Indonesia’. International Journal of Microsimulation, 14(2), 50–80. Open access.
  • Barnes, H., G. Espi-Sanchis, M. Leibbrandt, D. McLennan, M. Noble, J. Pirttilä, W. Steyn, B. van Vrede and Wright, G. (2021) ‘Analysis of the distributional effects of COVID-19 and state-led remedial measures in South Africa’. International Journal of Microsimulation, 14(2): 2-31. Open access.
  • Decoster, A., Pirttilä, J., Sutherland, S. and Wright, G. (2019) ‘SOUTHMOD: Modelling tax-benefit systems in developing countries’. International Journal of Microsimulation, 12(1): 1-12. Open access.
  • Wright, G., Leyaro, V., Kisanga, E. and Byaruhanga, C. (2019) ‘Policy transparency in the public sector: The case of social benefits in Tanzania’. International Journal of Microsimulation, 12(1): 83-104. Open access.

Working papers

  • Gasior, K., Avram, S. and Popova, D. (2024) Outside the box – Women’s individual poverty risk and the role of labour market characteristics and tax-benefit policies. ISER Working Paper Series, 2024–2. Colchester: University of Essex. Click here to download a copy.
  • Wright, G., Gasior, K., Ollonqvist, J., Steyn, W., Ngobeni, W., Barnes, H., Noble, M., Mclennan, D., Pirttilä, J. and Jansen, A. (2023) Exploring options to deepen and broaden the personal income tax base in South Africa. WIDER Working Paper 2023/147 / SA-TIED Working Paper 224. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Gasior, K., Wright, G., Barnes, H. and Noble, M. (2023) Adaptive Social Protection in Indonesia – Stress-testing the effect of a natural disaster on poverty and vulnerability. CeMPA Working Paper Series, 01/23. Colchester: University of Essex. Click here to download a copy.
  • Gasior, K., Jara, H. X. and Makovec, M. (2023) Assessing the effectiveness of social protection measures in mitigating COVID-19-related income shocks in the European Union. World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, 10546. Click here to download a copy.
  • Gasior, K., Tasseva, I. and Wright, G. (2022) The effectiveness of social protection in five African countries through normal times and times of crisis. WIDER Working Paper 2022/174. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Gasior, K., Navarro, S., Pirttilä, J. and Kangasniemi, M. (2022) Distributional impacts of agricultural policies in Zambia: A microsimulation approach. WIDER Working Paper 2022/143. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Hakizimana, N., J. Karangwa, J. Lastunen, A. Nsabimana, I. Murasi, L. Niyigena, M. Noble and Wright, G. (2022) Tax-benefit microsimulation model in Rwanda: A feasibility study. WIDER Working Paper 2022/72. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Gasior, K., McLennan, D., Kalikeka, M., Bwalya, M. and Jouste, M. (2021) Towards greater poverty reduction in Zambia: Simulating potential Cash Plus reforms using MicroZAMOD. WIDER Working Paper 2021/164. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Waiswa, R., J. Lastunen, G. Wright, M. Noble, J.Okello Ayo, M.Isingoma Nalukwago, T. Kaidu Barugahara, S. Kavuma, I. Arinaitwe, M. Mwesigye, W. Asiimwe and P. Rattenhuber (2021) An assessment of presumptive tax in Uganda: Evaluating the 2020 reform and four alternative reform scenarios using UGAMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for Uganda. WIDER Working Paper 2021/163. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Lastunen, J., Rattenhuber, P., Adu-Ababio, K., Gasior, K., Jara, H. X., Jouste, M., McLennan, D., Nichelatti, E., Oliveira, R. C., Pirttilä, J., Richiardi, M. and Wright, G. (2021) The mitigating role of tax and benefit rescue packages for poverty and inequality in Africa amid the COVID-19 pandemic. WIDER Working Paper 2021/148. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • McLennan, D., M. Noble, G. Wright, H. Barnes and Masekesa, F. (2021) Exploring the quality of income data in two African household surveys for the purpose of tax-benefit microsimulation modelling: Imputing employment income in Tanzania and Zambia. WIDER Working Paper 2021/134. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Steyn, W., Sithole, A., Ngobeni, W., Muwanga-Zake, E., Barnes, H., Noble, M., McLennan, D., Wright, G. and Gasior, K. (2021) Simulating personal income tax in South Africa using administrative data and survey data. A comparison of PITMOD and SAMOD for tax year 2018. WIDER Working Paper 2021/120. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Barnes, H., G. Espi-Sanchis, M. Leibbrandt, D. McLennan, M. Noble, J. Pirttilä, W. Steyn, B. van Vrede and G. Wright (2021) Analysis of the distributional effects of COVID-19 and state-led remedial measures in South Africa. WIDER Working Paper 2021/68. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Wright, G., Noble, M., Barnes, H., Moechtar, A., McLennan, D., Yusuf, A. A., Gasior, K. and Muyanto, R. (2021) Estimating the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the remedial tax and benefit policies on poverty in Indonesia. CeMPA Working Paper Series, 02/21. Colchester: University of Essex. Click here to download a copy.
  • Kisanga, E., V. Leyaro, W. Matenga, M. Noble, H. Barnes and G. Wright (2021) Assessing the distributional impact of lowering the value-added tax rate for standard-rated items in Tanzania and options for recouping revenue losses. WIDER Working Paper 2021/38. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Khalfan, T., E. Kisanga, V. Leyaro, F. Masekesa, M. Noble and G. Wright (2020) Exploring options for a universal old age pension in Tanzania Mainland. WIDER Working Paper 2020/81. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Kavuma, S.N., Byaruhanga, C., Musoke, N., Loke, P., Noble, M. and Wright, G. (2020) An analysis of the distributional impact of excise duty in Uganda using a tax-benefit microsimulation model. WIDER Working Paper 2020/70. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Leyaro, V., F. Masekesa, R. Ramadhan, E. Kisanga, M. Noble, and G. Wright (2020) Tax-benefit microsimulation modelling in Zanzibar: A feasibility study. WIDER Working Paper 2020/15. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Gcabo, R., Moche, B., Steyn, W., Moahlodi, B., Pirttila, J., Noble, M., Wright, G., Barnes, H. and Masekesa, F. (2019) Modelling value-added tax (VAT) in South Africa: Assessing the distributional impact of the recent increase in the VAT rate and options for redress through the benefits system. WIDER Working Paper 2019/13. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Wright, G., Barnes, H., Noble, M., McLennan, D. and Masekesa, F. (2018) Assessing the quality of the income data used in SAMOD, a South African tax-benefit microsimulation model. WIDER Working Paper 2018/173. UNU-WIDER: Helsinki. Click here to download a copy.
  • Gasior, K., Leventi, C., Noble, M., Wright, G. and Barnes, H. (2018) The distributional impact of tax and benefit systems in six African countries. WIDER Working Paper 2018/155. UNU-WIDER: Helsinki.  Click here to download a copy.
  • Wright, G., Noble, M., Barnes, H., McLennan, D. and Mpike, M. (2016) Updating NAMOD, a Namibian tax-benefit microsimulation model. WIDER Working Paper 2016/143. UNU-WIDER: Helsinki.  Click here to download a copy.
  • Wright, G., Noble, M., Barnes, H., McLennan, D. and Mpike, M. (2016) SAMOD, a South African tax-benefit microsimulation model: recent developments. WIDER Working Paper 2016/115. UNU-WIDER: Helsinki.  Click here to download a copy.
  • Barnes, H., Castelo, V., Castigo, F., Cruz, A., Mpike, M., Noble, M. and Wright, G. (2016) Tax-benefit microsimulation modelling In Mozambique: A feasibility study. WIDER Working Paper 2016/27. UNU-WIDER: Helsinki.  Click here to download a copy.
  • Leyaro, V., Kisanga, E., Wright, G., Barnes, H. and Mpike, M. (2015) Tax-benefit microsimulation modelling in Tanzania: A feasibility study. WIDER Working Paper 2015/145. UNU-WIDER: Helsinki.  Click here to download a copy.
  • Kangasniemi, M., Barnes, H., Wright, G. and Mpike, M. (2015) Tax-benefit microsimulation modelling in Zambia. WIDER Working Paper 2015/121. UNU-WIDER: Helsinki.  Click here to download a copy.

Country reports

INDOMOD

  • Barnes, H., M. Noble and G. Wright (2021) INDOMOD Country Report: Indonesia – INDOMOD V3.1. Report for UNICEF Indonesia.
  • Barnes, H., M. Noble and G. Wright (2021) INDOMOD Country Report: Indonesia – INDOMOD V2.0. Report for UNICEF Indonesia.
  • Barnes, H., M. Noble and G. Wright (2020) INDOMOD Country Report: Indonesia – INDOMOD V1.3. Report for UNICEF Indonesia.

All the following country reports are available from the SOUTHMOD project page on the UNU-WIDER website.

MOZMOD

  • Castelo, V., F. Castigo, J. Cardoso, M. Noble, R. Oliveira and G. Wright (2023) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Mozambique – MOZMOD V2.10. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Castelo, V., F. Castigo, J. Cardoso, M. Noble, R. Oliveira and G. Wright (2022) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Mozambique – MOZMOD V2.9. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Castelo, V., F. Castigo, J. Cardoso, M. Noble and G. Wright (2021) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Mozambique – MOZMOD V2.6A. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Castelo, V., F. Castigo, J. Cardoso, M. Noble and G. Wright (2020) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Mozambique – MOZMOD V2.6. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Castelo, V., F. Castigo, J. Cardoso, M. Noble and G. Wright (2019) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Mozambique – MOZMOD V2.3. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Castelo, V., F. Castigo, A. Cruz, C. Byaruhanga, D. McLennan, M. Noble and G. Wright (2017) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Mozambique – MOZMOD V2.0. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Castelo, V., F. Castigo, A. Cruz, C. Byaruhanga, D. McLennan, M. Noble and G. Wright (2017) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Mozambique – MOZMOD V1.0. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.

RWAMOD

  • De Mahieu, A., J. Mukangango, T. Harerimana, J. Lastunen, N. Hakizimana, J. Karangwa, A. Nsabimana, L. Niyigena, M. Noble and G. Wright (2023) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Rwanda – RWAMOD V1.0. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.

TAZMOD

  • Leyaro, V., E. Kisanga, M. Msafiri, M. Noble, G. Wright and R. Oliveira (2023) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Tanzania – TAZMOD V2.8. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Leyaro, V., E. Kisanga, M. Noble, G. Wright and R. Oliveira (2022) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Tanzania – TAZMOD V2.5. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Leyaro, V., E. Kisanga, M. Noble, G. Wright and H. Barnes (2021) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Tanzania – TAZMOD V2.1. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Leyaro, V., E. Kisanga, M. Noble, G. Wright and D. McLennan (2019) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Tanzania – TAZMOD V1.8. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Leyaro, V., E. Kisanga, M. Noble, G. Wright and D. McLennan (2017) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Tanzania – TAZMOD v1.6. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.

UGAMOD

  • Waiswa, R., J. Okello Ayo, S. Kavuma, D. McLennan, M. Noble and G. Wright (2023) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Uganda – UGAMOD V2.0. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Waiswa, R., J. Okello Ayo, M. Noble, S. Kavuma and G. Wright (2022) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Uganda – UGAMOD V1.8. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Waiswa, R., J. Okello Ayo, M. Noble, C. Byaruhanga, S. Kavuma and G. Wright (2020) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Uganda – UGAMOD V1.4. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Waiswa, R., J. Okello Ayo, T. Kaidu Barugahara, N. Musoke, D. Nakyambadde, M. Noble, C. Byaruhanga, S. Kavuma, F. Masekesa and M. Isingoma Nalukwago (2019) SOUTHMOD Country Report Uganda – UGAMOD V1.1. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.

MicroZAMOD

  • Kalikeka, M., M. Bwalya, S. Mwamba, C. Bowa, K. Gasior and D. McLennan (2023) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Zambia – MicroZAMOD V2.15. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Kalikeka, M., M. Bwalya, K. Gasior, D. McLennan and M. Jouste (2022) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Zambia – MicroZAMOD V2.12. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Nakamba-Kabaso, P., S. Nalishebo, F. Muleya, M. Kalikeka, C. Byaruhanga, J. Jele, D. McLennan, M. Noble and G. Wright (2020) SOUTHMOD Country Report Zambia – MicroZAMOD V2.4. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Nakamba-Kabaso, P., S. Nalishebo, F. Muleya, D. McLennan, C. Byaruhanga, M. Noble, G. Wright and M. Kangasniemi (2019) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Zambia – MicroZAMOD V2.0. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Nakamba-Kabaso, P., S. Nalishebo, D. McLennan, M. Kangasniemi, M. Noble and G. Wright (2017) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Zambia – MicroZAMOD V2.0. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
  • Nakamba-Kabaso, P., S. Nalishebo, D. McLennan, M. Kangasniemi, M. Noble and G. Wright (2017) SOUTHMOD Country Report: Zambia – MicroZAMOD v1.0. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.

Policy briefs

  • Waiswa, R., J. Lastunen, G. Wright, M. Noble, J. Okello Ayo, M. Isingoma Nalukwago, T. Kaidu Barugahara, S. Kavuma, I. Arinaitwe, M. Mwesigye, W. Asiimwe and P. Rattenhuber (2021) ‘New directions for presumptive tax In Uganda’. WIDER Policy Brief 2021/8. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Gasior, K., M. Kalikeka, D. McLennan, M. Bwalya and M. Jouste (2021) ‘Towards greater poverty reduction in Zambia: Simulating potential Cash Plus reforms’. WIDER Policy Brief 2021/7. Click here to download a copy.
  • Kisanga, E., V. Leyaro, M. Noble, R.C. Oliveira, P. Rattenhuber and G. Wright (2021) ‘Limited impact of the tax-benefit system in Tanzania during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020’. WIDER Policy Brief 2021/6. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Lastunen, J., G. Wright, M. Noble, R. Waiswa, J. Okello Ayo and N. Milly Isingoma (2021) ‘Distributional Effects Of The Covid-19 Pandemic In Uganda’. WIDER Policy Brief 2021/5. Click here to download a copy
  • Barnes, H., G. Espi-Sanchis, M. Leibbrandt, D. McLennan, M. Noble, J. Pirttilä, W. Steyn, B. van Vrede, and G. Wright (2021). ‘The distributional impact of COVID-19 and the state emergency packages in South Africa’, SA-TIED Policy Brief 4/21. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Cardoso, J., V. Castelo, F. Castigo, M. Noble, R.C. Oliveira, P. Rattenhuber and G. Wright (2021) ‘The role of tax-benefit policies during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 in Mozambique’. WIDER Policy Brief 2021/3. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Kalikeka, M., M. Bwalya, K. Adu-Ababio, K. Gasior, D. Mclennan and P. Rattenhuber (2021) ‘Distributional effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia’. WIDER Policy Brief 2021/2. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.

Technical notes

  • Gasior, K., Barnes, H., Jouste, M., Lastunen, J., Mclennan, D., Noble, M., Oliveira, R. C. and Wright, G. (2021) Full-year adjustment for modelling COVID-19 policies in SOUTHMOD tax-benefit microsimulation models. WIDER Technical Note 2021/18. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • McLennan, D. (2021) Iterative proportional fitting for reweighting input data in SOUTHMOD microsimulation models. WIDER Technical Note 2021/17. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Barnes, H., McLennan, D., Noble, M. and Wright, G. (2021) Exploring the quality of income data in two South African household surveys which underpin SAMOD. WIDER Technical Note 2021/15. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.
  • Noble, M. (2021) How to implement sub-national poverty lines in a SOUTHMOD country model using conditional constants: The case of UGAMOD. WIDER Technical Note 2021/3. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Click here to download a copy.

Other

  • Wright, G. and Mpike, M. (2021) ‘A South African tax and benefit microsimulation model’ in Department of Social Development Social Security Review 2021: Evolution of Social Security in South Africa – An Agenda for Action. Pretoria: Department of Social Development. Pages 92-97. ISBN:978-0-621-44817-7.